Introduction: The Passing of Pope Francis and the Anticipation of His Successor
On Easter Monday, April 21, 2025, the Catholic world woke to the solemn news of Pope Francis’ passing at the age of 88. His death has left a profound void in the Catholic Church, as he was a leader who championed social justice, environmental stewardship, and interfaith dialogue during his papacy. With the Holy See now vacant, Catholics around the world are asking: who will be the next pope?
In the wake of this loss, the College of Cardinals will soon convene to elect a new pope, and all eyes are now on the papal conclave. This process, steeped in history and tradition, will determine the future direction of the Catholic Church. In this article, we will examine how the papal election unfolds, introduce the leading contenders among the cardinals, and outline the timeline and traditions that will shape this pivotal moment in history.
I. From Mourning to Conclave: The Road Ahead
As per Church tradition, after Pope Francis’ passing, the Catholic Church enters a period of mourning. Cardinal Kevin Farrell, the Camerlengo, formally announced the pope’s death with these words:
“Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis. At 7:35 this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the house of the Father.”
Following this announcement, funeral rites will be held in St. Peter’s Basilica, and the body of the late pope will lie in state for several days, allowing millions of pilgrims and faithful to pay their respects.
During this time, the College of Cardinals enters the sede vacante period, during which they assume control of the Vatican’s operations until a new pope is elected. The Camerlengo, along with select officials, will oversee Vatican affairs.
As per Church law, the papal conclave will begin once the period of mourning concludes. This is a critical moment for the Church, as it will elect the next spiritual leader of over 1.3 billion Catholics worldwide.
Cardinals Who Will Lead the Election Process:
The cardinal electors eligible to vote in the conclave must be under the age of 80 at the time of the papacy’s vacancy. 138 cardinals currently meet this criterion, though the ideal number of electors is traditionally 120. To elect a pope, a two-thirds majority is required, meaning the cardinals must achieve consensus on a candidate. Historically, the process of election has taken between 15 and 20 days, providing ample time for the electors to deliberate, travel, and discuss the needs of the Church.
II. The Mechanics of a Papal Conclave
Preparatory Congregations
Before the conclave begins, the cardinals will gather for a series of general congregations. These preparatory meetings allow the cardinals to discuss the Church’s needs, focusing on theological, pastoral, and administrative matters. These sessions help shape the discussions and may reveal which qualities the electors desire in the next pope. Key issues like social justice, global peace, and Church governance will likely take center stage.
Entering the Conclave
Once the conclave begins, the cardinals will process into the Sistine Chapel, where they will take their oaths of secrecy. Communication with the outside world will be strictly prohibited. All electronic devices are confiscated, and no one may leave the chapel until a new pope is elected. This moment is a solemn and prayerful occasion, as the electors seek guidance from the Holy Spirit in selecting the next leader of the Church.
Balloting
The voting process is highly structured. Up to four ballots are conducted each day—two in the morning and two in the afternoon. Once a candidate receives the required two-thirds majority, the decision is made, and the result is communicated to the public via smoke signals from the Sistine Chapel chimney: black smoke indicates no decision has been made, while white smoke signals the election of a new pontiff.
Once elected, the cardinal is asked, “Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?” If he accepts, he chooses a papal name. The Protodeacon, standing on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, will announce Habemus Papam—“We have a Pope”—to the world, followed by the new pope’s name and birth name.
III. Leading Papal Contenders
While any cardinal can theoretically be elected pope, certain figures have emerged as leading candidates due to their prominence, theological vision, and diplomatic experience. Here are some of the cardinals most likely to succeed Pope Francis:
1. Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke (USA)
-
Background: Born in 1948 in Missouri, Burke has held several important positions in the Church, including Archbishop of St. Louis and Prefect of the Apostolic Signatura. He is known for his strong stance on doctrinal orthodoxy and his criticism of liberal trends in Church teaching on issues such as divorce, remarriage, and LGBTQ rights.
-
Profile: A traditionalist, Burke is popular among those who believe in preserving the Church’s doctrinal purity. However, his election could deepen divisions within the Church, especially concerning social issues and liturgical practices.
(Photo courtesy of REUTERS/Alessandro Bianchi)
2. Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary)
-
Background: Erdő is the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and has served as President of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences. He is known for his conservative views and his efforts to strengthen relationships with the Orthodox Church.
-
Profile: Erdő’s appeal lies in his diplomatic acumen and his ability to foster dialogue between Eastern and Western Christian traditions. He also has a strong focus on family life, which resonates with conservatives within the Church.
3. Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça (Portugal)
-
Background: A renowned poet and church historian, Mendonça has served as Prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Education since 2022. He has gained recognition for his academic work and deep spirituality.
Profile: At 59, Mendonça is a leading progressive figure within the Church. His writings on mercy and social justice make him a compelling candidate for those who want a more compassionate, inclusive papacy.
